HISTORY 2006
On June 13th the Rebels lost to the Locos club 7-6. It was a demoralizing defeat, as the Rebels scored four runs in the sixth inning to tie the game and send it to extra innings, only to see Chris Minor to give it up on a pair of fielding errors on Dago Aguilar and then Jon Schumacher in the 10th inning. The game also broke a third place tie the Rebels had with the Locos club, and it sent the Rebels to the bottom of the Tuesday Night standings. Since then, the Rebels haven’t been higher than Sixth place in the division.
That loss against the Locos club was three and a half months ago. It’s been a long time since anyone had any reasonable expectations for the 2006 Tuesday Night Rebels to compete. Because of that, it’s hard to recall just how optimistic many of us were before the season begun.
It wasn’t hard to justify the hopes. The Rebels had made the postseason the previous four years, albeit both times by way of a Wild Card seed. Still, the Thursday Night Rebel Squad were a game away from taking the division in 2006. The batting order looked like it would be the team’s major strength, with a solid and young top four. The defense felt like it would be fine, and while the offense was mostly returning from the previous season with the minor addition of Rob Scheve, it also felt like it would be okay.
It’s worth asking what we might have missed that should have tempered some of the pre-season optimism. The answer is pretty simple. We should have paid more attention to the Rebels’ Pythagorean record in 2006.
The Pythagorean record, which is based on run differential, is used as a more accurate measure of a team’s overall talent than pure wins and losses. The reason places like Softball Reference track Pythagorean record, and why run differential is institutionalized on Lake County Softball standings page, is because it works. While it shouldn’t be viewed as gospel, it’s foolish to dismiss it as unimportant or uninformative. It’s a better predictor of success than intuition and hope.
The Rebels’ Pythagorean summer record in 2006 was 19-21 — not bad, but not good enough to make a strong run through the postseason. The Rebels played a little over their heads in 06’ and returned basically the same team to the field in 2005. That brings us to the other thing we maybe should have paid more attention to. Prior to this season two major projection systems, FanGraphs’ ZiPS and Softball Prospectus’s PECOTA, suggested that the Rebels would be fine but on the fringes of playoff contention.
Considering all the issues that plagued the Rebels season, the club can probably take some solace in the fact that it did find a way to remain competitive with the Pink Panthers club and Booner's club. For the most part, Rebel's busy off-season paid off. The acquisitions of Robert Scheve, Dago Aguilar, Andrew Stein and Dale Sizemore helped the Organization bridge the gap some in the league.
The only addition that didn't work out as well as planned was the signing of infielder Donny Sroka, who inked only four games before quitting. Making matters worse, the Rebels then lost Steve Guarini for the remaining part of the season to an unfortunate boating accident that almost took his life. Meanwhile, All-Star outfielder Rick Garza went on the disabled list with an inflamed left ankle and then the Organization announced that 2005 Rookie of the Year - Tim O'Connor would not be participating for the remaining part of the 06’ season.
The Rebels improved its resources by entering Fall League, upping their performance by signing veteran outfielder Jon Van Dyke and catcher Jeff Stein. Moving outfielder Nestor Toro to the shortstop and making Jonathan Schumacher their ace pitcher.
Ending up only one game from the championship.
The fall, and rise, and fall of the 06’ Rebels;
There were three parts to the Rebels season. After winning the first two games on Tuesday Night, the Rebels lost 8 of their next 14 games. At the time we wrote that while the Rebels dug themselves into a hole, it didn’t necessarily mean the season was lost. It just meant that they had less margin of error going forward, and that they needed to start winning games immediately.
And, wouldn’t you know it, that’s exactly what they started to do on Thursday Night. After the 3-5 start, the Rebels were one of the best teams in softball for the final two months (9-3). The team’s record was 12-8 at that point. They had, in fact, dug themselves out of the hole and took third place.
What went wrong;
That the Rebels weren’t good in any aspect of the game is an explanation for why the season was so bad, but we can pinpoint it a little more. Injuries did play a big role in the Rebels not being competitive, but they probably played more of a role in why they finished.
Rather than injury, it was ineffectiveness and a severe lack of depth that doomed the Rebels. The makeup, though, goes back to the question that we have to come back to again and again. There’s a lot to like about the 06’ roster, but are they the types of players a team can rely on if they want to compete for the postseason? After watching this whole season, are we really convince?
In all aspects of the game, the Rebels needed help.
Silver linings;
There were very few emergent players in 2006. The most positive development from the offensive side was Chris Minor, who seems to have made himself into a reliable bat. There were no breakouts on offense, aside from maybe putting up good numbers again for a little bit longer than he did in 2002. Nestor Tor got off to a nice start with the bat, and ended up as one of the best lead-off hitters in softball.
You have to look to the main core of guys to find the silver linings of 2006, and even then it has to be contextualized by Donny Sroka disastrous season. While it was a disappointing season in some respects, the Rebels did clinch a playoff spot, one way or another. The team ultimately lost in the divisional round, but the contributions of their young core players indicated that the future was bright for the Rebels.
That gave Rebels Organization hope that better things were in store for 2007.